Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
